7 Temmuz 2022
Demo. Trading news/events-

The picture is EURUSD 1 minute chart from today. Demo trade testing event-based trading. You can call it news trading or sentiment-based trading. Times in the picture are on my timezone. Non-farm payroll today. First decision: whether to trade NFP proactively or reactively. Proactively means making an educated guess about news (is it better or worse than expected, or as expected), reactively means trading after the news came out. I decided to trade reactively, because NFP is big news, which causes a lot of volatility, meaning that stop losses might not get filled. Proactive trading is better suited for lower volatility events.

Market expected 177K, previous was 176K. NPF was very strong: 312K. At the same time, average hourly earnings upped the expectations: 0.4% vs 0.3%. The unemployment rate was a little bit worse than expected, but not too bad at 3.9% vs 3.7%. NFP was so strong that it was time go short EURUSD. It took 9 mins to get my order filled. NFP came 15:30 (my timezone) and I got my order filled at 15:39. After price had moved favorably I decided to move stop loss to breakeven. 16:45 there was final services PMI, which was a little bit better than expected: 54.4 vs 53.5. I decided to stay short. And moved S/L to a small profit.

17:15 Powell speaks. I saw this as a risk event and Powell’s speech might potentially reverse bearish EURUSD move. As you can see on the picture I decided to close my position little bit before Powell’s speech. Powell talked about downsize risks, Chinese weakness, and that inflation isn’t too strong. Fed can adjust policy if needed. This sounds more dovish than expected, and I tried to go long EURUSD. However, I didn’t get my orders filled and I decided that I won’t try to get them filled for too long. I risked 2% and made a gain of 1.57%. Risk:reward is not the best, but I don’t see this as a problem.

What do you think about this kind of trading? I find this much more interesting than technical trading (not saying technicals don’t work – I’m just not into them!). Can this kind of trading work?



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